High level outcomes Intermediate outcomes Increased priceReduced incentives Increased sobriety & stability Short-term outcomes Compliance with laws Increased detection rate Alcohol industry Adults with alcohol problems Reach Licensed trade Drivers Taxation,displays, promotions, advertising Enforcement actions Outputs Random breath testing Addiction services Enforcement of planning controls & licensing laws Industry regulation Detox, Intensive support Activities Enforcement of drink driving laws SG, UK govts, EU Inputs Local authorities Vol orgs Police Alcohol – Partner Contributions to Outcomes Improved mental wellbeingReduced inequalities in healthy life expectancyReduced inequalities in alcohol-related deaths and hospital admissions BehaviourReduced alcohol consumption levelsLess drunkenness less drink-driving EnvironmentsPhysical:Reduced exposure to alcohol-related hazardsEconomic: Reduced availability/affordability of alcohol Social: Drunkenness less attractive sensible drinking thenorm Service uptake & engagement Understanding risks, attitudes to drinking Hazardous and harmful drinkers General public - targeted Preventive services Sensible drinking messages Media campaigns Brief advice Scottish Govt NHSĪ Basic Results Chain Program (Results) Chain of Events (Theory of Action) Key Questions WHY? Indirect Influence 7. Also strengthens approach to research / analytical planning Developing in a couple of ways in Scotland: contribution of organisations contribution of policies and programmes.Clearly sets out assumptions and external factors.Use of logic models and results chains strengthens programme planning and design.Good contribution analysis is, in effect, theory-based evaluation.Holy grail of attribution…“Builds a reasonably credible case about the difference the program is making.” (John Mayne).What are the lessons for future policy intervention /changes in resource allocation? Contribution Analysis.How cost-effective are our policies and programmes?.What contribution have our policies and programmes made?.What progress are we making towards the Purpose, Purpose targets and National Outcomes?.Ensure the right kind of evidence is available – answering questions of effectiveness, contribution, for Spending Review 09 and beyond.
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